Quantification of Conceptual Model Uncertainty in the Modeling of Wet Deposited Atmospheric Pollutants.

Conceptual model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty are dominant contributors to the total uncertainty of a radioecological model output. In the present study the focus is on conceptual model uncertainty, which is often not acknowledged. Conceptual model uncertainty is assessed by subtracting from the total uncertainty of the model output the propagated parameter uncertainty, obtained by means of Bayesian inference analysis. The conceptual model uncertainty is quantified for two process-based models, which describe the interception of wet deposited pollutants under equilibrium and kinetic conditions, respectively. The natural variability due the chemical valence of the elements considered is accounted for in both models. Quantitative evidence has been obtained that the conceptual model uncertainty can contribute to the total uncertainty budget of the models for interception of wet deposited pollutants at least as much as, if not more than, parameter uncertainty.

Dynamics of radiocaesium within forests in Fukushima-results and analysis of a model inter-comparison.

Forests cover approximately 70% of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011. Following this severe contamination event, radiocaesium (137Cs) is anticipated to circulate within these forest ecosystems for several decades. Since the accident, a number of models have been constructed to evaluate the past and future dynamics of 137Cs in these forests. To explore the performance and uncertainties of these models we conducted a model inter-comparison exercise using Fukushima data. The main scenario addressed an evergreen needleleaf forest (cedar/cypress), which is the most common and commercially important forest type in Japan. We also tested the models with two forest management scenarios (decontamination by removal of soil surface litter and forest regeneration) and, furthermore, a deciduous broadleaf forest (konara oak) scenario as a preliminary modelling study of this type of forest. After appropriate calibration, the models reproduced the observed data reliably and the ranges of calculated trajectories were narrow in the early phase after the fallout. Successful model performances in the early phase were probably attributable to the availability of comprehensive data characterizing radiocaesium partitioning in the early phase. However, the envelope of the calculated model end points enlarged in long-term simulations over 50 years after the fallout. It is essential to continue repetitive verification/validation processes using decadal data for various forest types to improve the models and to update the forecasting capacity of the models.

Evaluation of semi-mechanistic models to predict soil to grass transfer factor of 137Cs based on long term observations in French pastures.

The aim of this study was to evaluate and improve the accuracy of the semi-mechanistic models used in regulatory exposure assessment tools, to describe the transfer factors of 137Cs from pasture soils to grass observed in different grazing areas of France between 2004 and 2017. This involved a preliminary parameterization step of the dynamic factor describing the ageing of radiocesium in the root zone using a Bayesian approach. A data set with mid-term (10 years about) and long term (more than 20 years) field and literature data from 4 European countries was used. A double kinetics of the bioavailability decay was evidenced with two half-life periods equal to 0.46 ± 0.11 yr and 9.57 ± 1.12 yr for the fast and slow declining rates respectively. We, then, tested a few existing alternative models proposed in literature. The comparison with field data showed that these models always underestimated the observations by one to two orders of magnitude, suggesting that the solid-liquid partition coefficient (Kd) was overestimated by models. The results suggest that semi mechanistic models might fail in the long-term prediction of the radionuclide transfer from soil-to-plant in the food chain. They highlight the need to calculate Kd using easily exchangeable 137Cs (i.e. labile fraction) rather than total soil 137Cs.

Estimation of fukushima radio-cesium deposits by airborne surveys: Sensitivity to the flight-line spacing.

After Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, airborne gamma-ray detection was used for regional mapping of soil contamination. For such surveys, the flight-line spacing is an important factor controlling the quality of contamination maps. In this study, cesium-137 (137Cs) ground activity is interpolated and mapped using ordinary kriging method; thereafter the error of interpolation is evaluated as a function of flight-line spacing. The analyses were conducted in six 20 km × 20 km test sites with distance of less than 80 km from the FDNPP. In each site, the ordinary kriging estimators were applied to different selections of flight-lines of decreasing density, then punctual and classification errors were calculated. It is demonstrated that these variables are highly correlated (r2 > 0.78): increasing the flight-line spacing for 1 km increases the errors from 3% to 9%, depending on the site location. Therefore, flight-line spacing could be designed as a function of acceptable error, determined in the monitoring objectives.

Long term decrease of 137Cs bioavailability in French pastures: Results from 25 years of monitoring.

Long term radioactivity monitoring programs contribute to the understanding of the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. This work aims to investigate the long term behavior of Cesium-137 in pasture ecosystem (root soil, grass and cow's milk) by using of more than twenty five years monitoring data collected at ten of French pasture sites contaminated by atmospheric fallouts from Chernobyl and nuclear atmospheric tests. We estimated with a simple exponential model the long term effective half-lives of radiocesium in root soil, grass vegetation and cow's milk along with their associated uncertainties. The average values of the effective half-lives over all the investigated sites were determined as 17, 11 and 9 years for soil, grass and milk respectively. Those values compare favorably to those estimated in previous studies in literature. These findings further enable us to quantify the decrease of 137Cs bioavailability which ranges from 0.008 to 0.044 year-1 with an average value of 0.026 year-1 (i.e. effective half lives ranging from 16 to 87 years with an average value of 26 years in soil).

Radiocaesium partitioning in Japanese cedar forests following the "early" phase of Fukushima fallout redistribution.

Our study focused on radiocaesium (137Cs) partitioning in forests, three vegetation periods after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. 137Cs distribution in forest components (organic and mineral soil layers as well as tree compartments: stem, bark, needles, branches and roots) was measured for two Japanese cedar stand ages (17 and 33 years old). The results showed that around 85% of the initial deposit was found in the forest floor and topsoil. For the youngest stand almost 70% of the deposit is present in the forest floor, whereas for the oldest stand 50% is present in the 0-3 cm mineral soil layer. For trees, old and perennial organs (including dead and living needles and branches, litter fall and outer bark) directly exposed to the fallout remained the most contaminated. The crown concentrated 61-69% of the total tree contamination. Surprisingly the dead organs concentrated 25 ± 9% (young cedars) to 36 ± 20% (mature cedar) of the trees' residual activity, highlighting the importance of that specific compartment in the early post-accident phase for Japanese cedar forests. Although the stem (including bark) represents the highest biomass pool, it only concentrates 3.3% and 4.6% of the initial 137Cs deposit for mature and young cedars, respectively.

Modelling the dynamics of ambient dose rates induced by radiocaesium in the Fukushima terrestrial environment.

Since the Fukushima accident, Japanese scientists have been intensively monitoring ambient radiations in the highly contaminated territories situated within 80 km of the nuclear site. The surveys that were conducted through mainly carborne, airborne and in situ gamma-ray measurement devices, enabled to efficiently characterize the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of air dose rates induced by Caesium-134 and Caesium-137 in the terrestrial systems. These measurements revealed that radiation levels decreased at rates greater than expected from physical decay in 2011-2012 (up to a factor of 2), and dependent on the type of environment (i.e. urban, agricultural or forest). Unlike carborne measurements that may have been strongly influenced by the depuration of road surfaces, no obvious reason can be invoked for airborne measurements, especially above forests that are known to efficiently retain and recycle radiocaesium. The purpose of our research project is to develop a comprehensive understanding of the data acquired by Japanese, and identify the environmental mechanisms or factors that may explain such decays. The methodology relies on the use of a process-based and spatially-distributed dynamic model that predicts radiocaesium transfer and associated air dose rates inside/above a terrestrial environment (e.g., forests, croplands, meadows, bare soils and urban areas). Despite the lack of site-specific data, our numerical study predicts decrease rates that are globally consistent with both aerial and in situ observations. The simulation at a flying altitude of 200 m indicated that ambient radiation levels decreased over the first 12 months by about 45% over dense urban areas, 15% above evergreen coniferous forests and between 2 and 12% above agricultural lands, owing to environmental processes that are identified and discussed. In particular, we demonstrate that the decrease over evergreen coniferous regions might be due the combined effects of canopy depuration (through biological and physical mechanisms) and the shielding of gamma rays emitted from the forest floor by vegetation. Our study finally suggests that airborne surveys might have not reflected dose rates at ground level in forest systems, which were predicted to slightly increase by 5-10% during the same period of time.

Assessment of dry and wet atmospheric deposits of radioactive aerosols: application to Fukushima radiocaesium fallout.

The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident led to massive atmospheric deposition of radioactive substances onto the land surfaces. The spatial distribution of deposits has been estimated by Japanese authorities for gamma-emitting radionuclides through either airborne monitoring surveys (since April 2011) or in situ gamma-ray spectrometry of bare soil areas (since summer 2011). We demonstrate that significant differences exist between the two surveys for radiocaesium isotopes and that these differences can be related to dry deposits through the use of physically based relationships involving aerosol deposition velocities. The methodology, which has been applied to cesium-134 and cesium-137 deposits within 80-km of the nuclear site, provides reasonable spatial estimations of dry and wet deposits that are discussed and compared to atmospheric numerical simulations from the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency and the French Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety. As a complementary approach to numerical simulations, this field-based analysis has the possibility to contribute information that can be applied to the understanding and assessment of dose impacts to human populations and the environment around Fukushima.